Dave Sabol

Wow, it looks like we could be in for quite a storm over the next few days. I suspected as much given the excitement late last week at Accuweather.com. Some how they just knew this was going to be the “big daddy storm” everyone in the mid-Atlantic was waiting for. Now, I guess all that remains to be seen is if it turns out the way they have forecasted it.
Here is a graphic depiction of the storm:

Here is a forecast map with predicted amounts of snow for the affected areas that was complied by Accuweather.com ’s Senior Meterologist and Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity :

Finally, here is Henry’s predictions with regard to how much snow specific cities in the stroms path could get. In all fairness to Henry, these were posted Saturday evening and are obviously his best guess based on the information he had available at the time.

Take notice to the specific predictions for Allentown, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. I highlighted these areas because a few colleagues and myself are supposed to be travelling to a conference in DC tomorrow afternoon that runs through Valentines Day (February 14th). Obviously, if these amounts are even close to accurate (which I fear they are), it is going to make for a pretty memorable experience should we decide to go.

I will offer one counterpoint, which I think is important to have when one is dealing with the weather. Elliot Abrams, Expert Senior Meterologist at Accuweather.com offers a word of caution.

Remember how models at first showed the storm farther south? Well the models yesterday trended north to suggest the area from Maryland to Maine could get heavy snow. However, suppose the trend of the models toward a more northerly track continues? Then, warm air that would have stayed south of places like Philadelphia and New York City would actually encroach northward and change the snow to rain at the height of the storm.

I don’t think it’s time to write off a giant storm just yet, but I believe too many people get caught up in “snow fever” and forget that storms of this size and nature are rather unpredictable despite the advanced technology we use to forecast them. In the end, I guess it is better to hope for the best (in this case I really want a big storm) and prepare for the worst (in this situation a snow to rain transition or a total miss). Stay tuned, I am going to keep on top of this one because I think it could be a storm to remember.